地方国有企业的投融资期限错配:成因与治理

地方国有企业是中国经济发展的中坚力量,在供给侧结构性改革中应发挥带头作用,成为改革的主力军和先行者。目前地方国有企业存在的突出困境是债务水平过高,且面临较为严重的投融资期限错配问题。本文以2005—2013年中国工业企业数据库(CIED)中规模以上的非上市国有企业为样本,构建"投资-负债"模型分析短期债务变化量和长期投资额之间的动态关系,从预算软约束和金融市场结构两个维度剖析造成国有企业投融资期限错配的内在机理。研究发现:(1)我国央企和地方国企的投资更依赖新增债务而非留存收益,预算软约束问题严重;(2)金融市场提供长期资金的能力不足,国有企业进行长期债务融资的渠道受限;(3)国有企业的投资活动更依赖新增短期债务,存在投融资期限错配问题,且地方国有企业的投融资期限错配问题更加严重。本文的研究结果表明,为了实现地方国有企业去杠杆并优化债务结构,应从国企本身、银行信贷、政府行为和资本市场等方面进行综合治理,以提升地方国有企业的内源融资能力,并完善金融市场结构。     

国家治理现代化框架下中国财政改革实践和理论建设的再认识

40年的改革进程中,财政作为国家治理的基础和重要支柱,不仅有效发挥了以"政"领"财",为实现国家改革战略提供根本保障的基础作用,而且积极履行因"财"施"政",根据改革需求优化财政结构,提升财政效率,对建立现代财政制度、实现国家治理体系和治理能力现代化提供了重要的制度支撑。在总结40年财政改革实践的经验、逻辑和特征的基础上,对具有中国特色的财政本质、功能和规律进行深化认识和理论归纳,对于形成中国特色社会主义财政规律的基本认识,明确新时代我国财政发展面临的形势与任务,思考新时代中国特色社会主义财政理论建设的基本方向,都是非常重要的。本文通过对40年中国财政改革实践和理论建设的思考,对上述问题进行探索。     

A tactical retreat? Conceptualising the dynamics of European grocery retail divestment from East Asia

The internationalisation of the firm is a highly dynamic process, in which periods of investment and expansion intermingle with periods of divestment and retrenchment. Academic research to date has focused on identifying the reasons for and the processes of divestment. Empirical studies either evidence generic pressures or provide case studies of specific incidents. There few longitudinal studies of international divestment, consequently the dynamic interactions between host market, home market and firm level factors, and how the institutional context changes over time is underplayed. This paper seeks to rectify this gap in our understanding.We explore the rationale and evolving dynamics of European grocery retail divestment in East Asia over a thirty year period. Taking an inductive approach and drawing on analysis of contemporary narratives drawn from company documentation, trade journals, newsfeeds and market reports, three phases can be identified characterised by specific factors and combinations of factors which intersect to provide the key pressures and stimuli for divestment. We conclude that at different time periods, different internal and external contextual influences manifest themselves through different priorities within the firm’s strategy – marked by a switch from local (host) market, to regional, to global firm-centric considerations. Longitudinal analyses allow a greater recognition of this dynamic interplay of factors, and the changes in these relationships, and provides a more nuanced understanding of the international divestment process.     

Export market re-entry: Time-out period and price/quality dynamisms

The relevance of nonlinear internationalisation regarding exporting activities and the performance post re-entry remains little understood. This study develops a two-stage model to explain the process of exporting firms’ exit and re-entry decisions regarding individual export markets. Specifically, it investigates the dynamic relationships between exit and re-entry stages by focusing on the time-out period. This study empirically tests the decision model by employing export data from the Chinese Customs for the period 2000-2009. The results indicate the importance of the exit stage in shaping re-entry decisions, price/quality ratio and export performance, where time-out period plays a significant role in varying these effects.     

优化营商环境与外资企业FDI动机——市场寻求抑或效率寻求

在优化营商环境已成为当前发展中国家引资竞争新优势的背景下,针对优化营商环境影响外资企业FDI动机的考察变得尤为重要。本文在构建企业层面营商环境指数的基础上,考察了发展中国家优化营商环境影响外资企业FDI动机的机制及效应。结论表明:优化营商环境减弱(增强)了外资企业的市场(效率)寻求型FDI动机;内资企业竞争力的增强、外资企业特惠资源的取消和加工贸易型外资企业的存在,使得优化营商环境降低了外资企业的生产率,进而市场(效率)寻求型FDI动机减弱(增强)。细分样本的考察发现,上述结论仅存在于独资企业、工业和低收入国家的外资企业中,对于合资企业、服务业和高收入国家的外资企业,优化营商环境对其FDI动机无显著影响,且生产率的中介效应不存在。本研究从优化营商环境的视角为当前中国引资政策的制定提供了更为具体的政策启示。     

Adaptive market hypothesis: The story of the stock markets and COVID-19 pandemic

Since the level of markets’ information efficiency is key to profiteering by strategic players, Shocks; such as the COVID-19 pandemic, can play a role in the nature of markets’ information efficiency. The martingale difference and conditional heteroscedasticity tests are used to evaluate the Adaptive form of market efficiency for four (4) major stock market indexes in the top four affected economies during the COVID-19 pandemic (USA, Brazil, India, and Russia). Generally, based on the martingale difference spectral test, there is no evidence of a substantial change in the levels of market efficiency for the US and Brazilian stock markets in the short, medium, and long term. However, in the long term, the Indian stock markets became more information inefficient after the coronavirus outbreak while the Russian stock markets become more information efficient. Intuitively, these affect the forecastability and predictability of these markets’ prices and/or returns. Thereby, informing the strategic and trading actions of stock investors (including arbitrageurs) towards profit optimization, portfolio asset selection, portfolio asset adjustment, etc. Similar policy implications are further discussed.     

IFRS adoption and stock misvaluation: Implication to Korea discount

Analyzing publicly traded stocks in Korea surrounding IFRS adoption in 2011, we find that the gap between stock price and firm value, value-to-price (V/P) ratio, narrows following the IFRS adoption and that this narrowed gap is observed only for higher V/P firms. We further find that the return predictability of V/P decreases in the post-IFRS period. Using a path analysis, we report further evidence that mandatory IFRS adoption decreases idiosyncratic volatility and improves trading volume and market liquidity, thereby contributing to the narrowed gap between value and price. We conclude that IFRS adoption contributes to resolution of Korea discount.     

The moderating effect of average wage and number of stores on private label market share: A hierarchical linear model analysis

Existing research on private label market share is primarily in the context of the Western market. The Chinese market context research is scarce, although private labels are developing rapidly in the past several years. This study investigates how the average wage and number of stores affect the Chinese market's private label market share. More importantly, this paper examines the moderating effect of the average wage and the number of stores on the relationship between the private label market share and product assortment as well as the relationship between the private label market share and pricing. Data collected from a Chinese supply chain dyad is analyzed to study category management using hierarchical linear models. The results reveal that the average wage and the number of stores positively affect the private label market share. Furthermore, the average wage enhances the negative effect of the number of brands, weakens the negative effect of the private label price, weakens the positive effect of national brand price. Meanwhile, the number of stores enhances the positive effect of the SKU proliferation of private label, enhances the negative effects of the number of brands, and enhances the negative effect of the private label price. This study contributes to category management. Furthermore, the findings will be valuable to domestic and international grocery marketers and retailers operating private labels in China.     

科技创新与金融创新耦合系统脆弱性及政府干预

从理论上论述了政府干预科技创新与金融创新耦合系统脆弱性的必要性、途径及作用机制。基于以耦合系统内部结构为表征的实体子系统脆弱性和以公共创新环境、耦合系统综合效益为测评工具的虚像子系统脆弱性3个维度构建耦合系统脆弱性指数，分别采用静态面板固定效应回归及动态面板两阶段系统GMM回归，实证检验了我国政府干预对耦合系统脆弱性的实质影响。研究表明：在各类干预举措中，政府采购政策与知识产权保护政策效应明显，特别是知识产权保护政策效应潜力巨大；财政政策领域明显存在过度干预现象，其它政策效应或不显著或有违初衷，亟待调整与完善。     

构建适应中国特色应急管理需求的财政治理体系

“坚持总体国家安全观”是党的十九大报告关于国家发展战略的基本要求。以习近平同志为核心的党中央对应急管理工作高度重视,积极改革应急管理机构设置,加快构建“全灾种、全方位、全过程”的国家综合应急管理体制。同时,财政作为国家治理的基础和重要支柱,财政治理现代化是应急管理体制现代化的先决条件之一。目前我国应急管理的理论研究较少嵌入财政治理机制的影响。本文梳理了国内外应急管理的相关治理理论,结合我国应急管理体制改革的现实需求,分析了当前我国应急管理中财政治理的现状,构建了我国应急管理中财政治理的政策体系模型,并提出了相应财税政策建议。